Lok Housing on a 5% upper circuit today at Rs 47.75 on BSE…will it revive to Rs 400 + !?

On July 7,2008 I had blogged on Lok Housing that had collapsed from Rs 400 + to Rs 44 inside the first six months of 2008

Lok Housing at Rs 44!…down from Rs 400 in just six months!

Monday, July 7th, 2008

I followed this up on October 20,2008 with another blog on Lok Housing facing a Rs 100 crs Tax liability for undisclosed income

Lok Housing now faces Rs 100 crs Income Tax Liability on undisclosed Income

Monday, October 20th, 2008

I have been asked by a blog reader Shankar whether I yet follow Lok Housing…Actually I don’t…but I did have a quick look today at it and how it has fared…..I have responded to Shankar on the earlier Lok Housing Blog but thought it would reach a wider vierwership if I put this response as a seperate blog

Hey Shankar….Lok Housing looks interesting..its locked on upper circuit of @5% today at Rs 47.75 on BSE….this is around it’s book value too….checked it out briefly…Networth is over Rs 200 crs after Promoters converted warrants in May this year….Debt position of Rs 54 crs at March end looks manageable with settlement with State Bank of India under way….but where will revenues come from?…it has a 49% stake in a company that has a bid submitted for C Ward Dev of 30 acres,to raze 362 old buildings and 8000 tenements and construct high rises in their place in Kalbadevi/Chira Bazaar area in Mumbai….and has land of nearly 3.3 lakh sq metres in Ambernath ,a Mumbai distant suburb which is now available for developement after the annulment of the Urban land Ceiling Act recently

….It’s much maligned and criticised Promoter,Lalit Gandhi expired earlier this year in March…his son Darshan is in the Drivers seat now as MD

….It’s carrying a hell of a lot of Inventory of Rs 337 crs at March end 2010…How much of this is really realisable/saleable and worth is the question…

If memory serves me right,it owned huge tracts of land on which saltpans existed….the law did not allow development of such land….the government was approached to change this stand and there was a lot of controversy,flip flopping over this…one needs to check that this Ambernath land they are talking of developing can really be developed

…..some more caution…they are carrying Rs 174 crs Current Liabilities and Provisions at March end…this is more than matched by Inventories of Rs 337 crs…however these Inventories may not be readily realisable as the construction at ongoing projects Lok Mansarovar,Lok Prabhat and Lok Nirman are just satifactory

It will surely need capital for these plans…it’s liquidity on the books is poor…..but if you recollect the Income Tax authorities had raided Lok Group and unearthed Hundreds of Crores of concealed Income…these would be flats sold for cash but not disclosed…The company was slapped with Tax and Penalties notices and even highlighted on the Tax Authorities website….The Directors Report in the Annual Report of 2010 makes no mention of what is the status of this case

….The Corporate Governance Issues play up in such situations when the Group is facing or going through a crisis….but I sense the worst is behind them…will they regain their credibility ?…is up to them…how they set in motion their revival with full transperancy and strong corporate governance….only then will all stakeholders really believe that there is hope for this Group….that their Intentions are honourable and now just need the abilities to realise them

Those poor (pun intended) Investors who bedded this Stock at Rs 400+ in 2007/8 have literally and figuratively got royally s_____d !……therefore the Reservations held on a host of critical issues are yet very intense ….These Investors can only live in Hope !…and I Hope they don’t die in despair !

For all these reasons I’ll keep Lok Housing on Stockwatch rather than StockSelect….Cheers !