MCX IPO in the Price Band of Rs 860 to Rs 1032…The Issue closes tomorrow and has already been oversubscribed today
Interestingly,and I’m sure it’s just a coincidence and not deliberate that the MCX IPO is being handled by Morgan,Citi and Edelweiss…Got it !? ….MCX and MC(E)X !
So should you Apply ?…You will not be missing it really !…Methinks you can await a secondary market listing and see how the scrip plays out in 2012….the Issue is an Offer for sale and therefore No Proceeds will come into MCX…the IPO Pricing is on the higher side at nearly 5 book and 18 Current Earnings…I don’t see non linear growth in the immediate term,though MCX may just surprise
The Question is why are you Applying ?…for Listing Gains ? or for Long Term Wealth Creation Prospects ?
Let’s Examine Both……
Listing Gains ?
Rs 3200 is being guaranteed for each Application Form for maximum in Retail….The Grey Market Premium of @ Rs 250-300 indicates Listing Gains of 20% to 30% with Listing in the Rs 1200 to Rs 1300 range in the second week of March 2012…However such Gains have had a history of evaporating quickly on Listing,indicating pre IPO and pre listing Grey market manipulation…remember Reliance Power fiasco in Feb/March 008 !?…coincidentally the Months are the same here !…so a question mark exits on sustainability of such Grey Market Gains in the Secondary Market….A Valuation Analysis later will provide some more clarity on this
With reasonably heavy oversubscription expected,it is assumed the Price fixed will be the upper band Rs 1032……unlikely you will get any decent allotment…for example Retail Investors can Apply for a Minimum of 6 shares and in Multiples of 6 thereafter….therefore the maximum Application they can make is for 192 Shares @ Rs 1032 => Rs 198144….The Issue is an Offer For Sale by existing shareholders,including the Promoter Financial Technologies I Ltd (FTIL) for 6427378 Equity Shares of FV Rs 10….The Actual Offer currently is for 5500772 as 926606 Shares have been just placed with Anchor Investors at Rs 1032 as allowed upto 30% of Shares on Offer in the Qualified Institutional Bodies (QIB) Segment of 50%….Retail Investors Segment has 2162082 shares on Offer…that’s a Subscription of Rs 223 crs @ Rs 1032 in the Issue Size of Rs 663 crs….Expect Ten Times Oversubscription in this segment….that will give you an allotment of just 19 to 20 shares on an application of 192 Shares…A Listing gain of Rs 300 would indicate Total Gains of Rs 6000 on the 20 shares…that’s a 3+% return on Rs 198144 inside a month…the risks here are that the Gains may lower or even a possible Listing Loss on account of Lower than Rs 300 Listing Gains + Poorer Allotment on heavier than Ten Times Subscription
MCX as a Long Term Wealth Creator Idea
Now this is where it get’s interesting !….ask yourself two questions
- Should I have MCX in my Equity Portfolio as a Long Term Wealth Creator?….if already decided No,then read this Blog Post purely for Academic Interest….or else use this Post as one input to help you decide
- I must have MCX in my Equity Portfolio but will I get it cheaper than Rs 1032 in the Secondary Market this year ?….You may not get it cheaper than IPO Pricing ,but as the Allotment is bound to be weak,you will have to buy in the Secondary market too to give MCX an appropriate portfolio weightage to suit your risk profile
So the Important Criteria,as always is to weigh IPO Pricing against Value,considering Growth Prospects of MCX….so let’s do this….and see if CRISIL was being too generous in grading this IPO at Top Level of 5
MCX IPO ~ My ‘P’ Analysis is based on over 20 pages of Notings and Jottings and focuses on
- Pedigree ~ Promoters & Management & Participants in Equity
- Products and Services ~ Strength and Scalability of the Business Model
- Performance ~ Past,Present and Potential
- Pricing ~ IPO v/s Valuation
Pedigree of the Promoters & Management
I personally know a few of the Top at MCX and in it’s Promoter Financial Technologies (India) Ltd (FTIL) Group and am really happy for them as the MCX IPO launches…I must give them credit for Loyalty,Risk Taking Abilities and the Patience to let the Business Model ramp up in a Five Year Period…Most Promoters are looking for a quick buck,any which way,and lack the vision,patience and domain skills to build world class enterprises with good Teams…A couple of years ago I’ve had the Pleasure of being invited by FTKMC,a FTIL Group Company, to address top 100 delegates from nearly 20 nations and who headed their Central Banks,Banks and Financial Institutions,Regulatory Agencies and Exchanges and Leading Broking Houses at the South Asian Federation of Exchanges Mauritius Meet…it was hosted by GBOT,another FTIL Group Company and the Conference was a great success
The Credit for promoting and Pursuing the FTIL Vision largely goes to it’s front face, Jignesh Shah ,an ex BSE Personnel…he clearly,alongwith likeminded promoters, saw a huge potential in Technology driven Trading Platforms across Assets like Equities,Currencies and Commodities…FTIL was formed to create the Comprehensive Software that would drive this Trading…It then went even further !…it began setting up Trading Exchanges supported by Knowledge & Clearing Companies so that Training & Trading move in Tandem…It’s Revenue Model is one of Variable Royalty based on Trading Turnover at the Exchanges
Board of Directors
There are 15 Directors aged from 39 year old Paras Ajmera (Non Executive FTIL Nominee who also holds over 1% of the Equity of MCX at 540529 shares incl Bonus…437500 shares were allotted at Rs 144 in July /August 2008) to 76 year old C M Maniar,Senior Partner at Crawford Bayley (Non Executive Non Independent)…The Chairman is 71 year old Venkat Chary.52 year old V Hariharan (Non Executive Non Independent) also holds 541032 shares inc bonus and allottment details are similar to those of Ajmera…Joseph Massey holds 31250 shares of which he has declared intention to sell 10000 on listing…The MD and CEO from July 1.2009,is the 49 year old Dutch National Lambertus Rutten.He holds 8750 shares.Nominee Directors include One of the Central Government,three from Market Regulator FMC,and one each from NABARD and State Bank of India
Along the Way The FTIL Group has had it’s share of Disputes and Controversies…NSE and SEBI continue to be at loggerheads with FTIL & MCX on some critical competition and corporate governance issues that involve shareholding stakes
Promoter FTIL
While going through FTIL Accounts,four interesting situations popped up
-
It has significant exposure to FCCB and ECBs and has been capitalising the Translation Loss on the Depreciation of the Rupee,as allowed leniently by the Government…It repaid 2006 Issued FCCBs of US $ 100 m last year funding it partially through raising new ECB Funds
-
Investments in Subsidiaries and Ventures has crossed Rs 1000 crs and FTIL has provided over Rs 100 crs for diminution in Value so far…FY 11 the PAT was shown at Rs 95 crs after such provision…The actual Profitability is in excess of Rs 200 crs which gives an EPS Range of Rs 50 to Rs 60 on a FV Rs 2 Equity of Rs 9.216 crs…The Networth at March 31,2011 was Rs 1555 crs giving a Book of Rs 378 per share…Dividend was Rs 8 or 400%…FTIl is cuurently quoted at Rs 810 thus giving a PE of 13 to 15 times and a Book of Two of FY 12 too is factored in
-
In FY 10 FTI L sold 718.75 lakh shares in MCX-SX to a financial institution for Rs 35 to get Rs 251.56 crs…MCX-SX had applied to SEBI to begin Equity Trading…SEBI had raised a serious issue of excessive Shareholding by the Promoters MCX and denied the permission vied an order of September 23,2010 even after MCX complied with reducing shareholding to 5%…this was because they issued warrants numbering 61.71 crs,being the same number as shares cancelled…MCX filed a writ petition on October 29,2010 and the Bombay High Court vied its order of October 14,2011 has asked SEBI to resolve this issue amicably…This is yet to be resolved…Observing that the MCX-SX did not get the SEBI nod for Trading Equities on it’s Platform,the institution requested in FY 11 as per a share purchase agreement to reset the sale price to Rs 10 and asked FTIL to return the balance funds along with Interest.This was done by FTIL…This to me,seems a case of arbitrary valuation !…Rs 35 if Equity Platform Trading permission is given by SEBI,otherwise drop down to Rs 10 ! ~ or else an Equity Trading Platform truly is a lucrative proposition…NSE and BSE had better watch out if MCX -SX gets the permission …it is largely perceived that hurdles have been created so that MCX-SX does not get this go ahead easily
-
Q3 FY 12 reveals that the average Daily Turnover of MCX in the Oct-Dec 2011 Qtr was Rs 48627 crs,an increase of 52% over the corresponding period in Q3 FY 11…the highest recorded in a single day was Rs 92910 crs…This is interesting as FTIL gets a royalty based on MCX turnover while MCX itself had the highest at 81.5% of total revenues,Rs 386 crs of Rs 475 crs, as Transaction Fees for the Nine Months at December 31,2011…so higher the turnover,higher the fees !
Also FTIL,besides itself and cash cow flagship MCX, has made a major Loss in nearly every Exchange or Entity it has promoted…Bahrain and Bourse Africa have yet to commence Operations…while MCX-SX currently does merely Currency Derivatives and is literally fighting SEBI for the permission to launch Interest Derivatives,Equity and Debt and Futures and Options Trading
Major Loss in Rs Crs by FTIL Promoted Companies and Exchanges
Sr |
Entity |
Inc |
Reporting Currency |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
1 |
Bahrain Financial Exchange (BFX) |
September 18,2008 |
Bahraini Dinar |
(5.1) |
(21.4) |
(34) |
2 |
Bourse Africa (BA) |
September 12,2007 |
US $ |
(5.5) |
(6.9) |
(6.8) |
3 |
Singapore Mercantile Exchange (SMX) |
November 15,2006 |
US $ |
(29.8) |
(31.3) |
(48.6) |
4 * |
Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange (DGCX) of DMCC |
July 19,2005 |
US $ |
(42.8) |
* |
* |
5 |
Global Board of Trade (GBOT),Mauritius |
December 18,2006 |
Mauritius Rupee |
|
|
|
6 |
MCX-SX |
August 14,2008 |
INR |
(29.9) |
(56.2) |
(57.8) |
7 |
Ticker Plant |
February 4,2005 |
INR |
(15.8) |
(27) |
(31.6) |
8 |
Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Centre(FTKMC) |
September 7,2007 |
INR |
(2) |
(1.4) |
1.1 |
9 # |
Takshashila Academia of Economic Research |
June 9,2008 |
INR |
(0.7) |
(0.9) |
0.09 |
* DGCX results are for the Calendar Year 2009.It’s Board has not adopted 2010 results due to a pending agreement onn a capital injection plan by shareholders….The regulator, Emirates Securities & Commodities Authority (ESCA) has asked for a valuation of DGCX to be conducted.This is yet pending
# TAER has Paras Ajmera as a Director and is 100% owned by FTIL.It was formed on June 9, 2008 to provide research on commodities for trading.It has an arrangement with MCX where the latter pays it Rs 15 lakhs a month on a quarterly basis for churning out commodity reports,of which atleast 250 copies have to be kept aside for MCX
Participants in Equity
Summary of Pre IPO Shareholding in MCX
Sr |
Category |
No of Shareholders |
Major Names |
Holding No of Shares |
% Holding Pre IPO |
1 |
Promoters |
1 |
FTIL |
2640031 |
31.18 |
2 |
Institutions |
14 |
State Bank of India and Other Banks,IFCI,NABARD |
12357243 |
24.23 |
3 |
Venture Capital |
2 |
ICICI,Kotak |
1837623 |
3.6 |
4 |
FIIs |
1 |
FID Funds Mauritius |
2549918 |
5 |
5 |
Non Institutions Body Corporates |
10 |
NSE,Bennett Coleman |
3354375 |
6.58 |
4 |
Individuals |
820 |
V Hariharan 541032 Paras Ajmera 540529 CEO,Joseph Massey 31250 |
1858963 |
3.65 |
5 |
Trusts |
1 |
MCX ESOP Trust |
423944 |
0.83 |
6 |
Foreign Bodies |
9 |
Passport Capital,Euronext,Aginyx (Citi),Merrill Lynch,GLG,Intel,New Vernon,Alexandra |
12695812 |
24.90 |
7 |
Foreign National |
1 |
|
8750 |
0.015 |
8 |
HUF |
1 |
|
125 |
– |
9 |
NRI |
1 |
|
8125 |
0.015 |
|
|
861 |
|
50998369 |
100 |
*813 upto 10000 shares and 7 above 10000 shares including above Group Personnel who were each allotted at Rs 144 which after bonus brings their costing down to Rs 115 |
….Interestingly NSE is also one of the early shareholders of MCX…It was allotted 10,00,000 Equity Shares of FV Rs 10 at par on May 5,2005…1: 4 Bonus was given in 2011…Inside Seven Years this Rs One Crore Investment is worth Rs 125 crs at IPO Pricing and in all indication Rs 150 + crs on Listing…now that is a CAGR of a fantastic 100% + for Seven years……But NSE is now an arch rival of FTIL and MCX and it is largely perceived that it has been behind the delay in SEBI giving the go ahead for Equity Trading to the MCX-SX,a subsidiary of MCX
Non Promoter Shareholders who,like NSE, enjoy this 100% + CAGR in seven years after being alloted shares at par of FV Rs 10 in 2004 and 2005 are State Bank of India and all it’s various subsidiary banks,Union Bank of India,Corporation Bank,Bank of India,Canara Bank,HDFC Bank,SBI Life Insurance and NABARD
State Bank of India held 5.18% of Equity of MCX with 2640031 shares Pre IPO.It was alloted 2100000 shares on 1/7/2004 at Par of Rs 10 thus making it an Investment of just Rs 21 crs …The IPO Offer for Sale includes 2112025 shares of State Bank of India..Post IPO the banks’s holding will drop to 528006 shares or 1.04% of MCX Equity…It will register Gains in excess of Rs 200 crs on this sale
MCX IPO ~ Offer for Sale of 6427378 Equity Shares of FV Rs 10 in the Price Band Rs 860 to Rs 1032 by the following existing Shareholders
Sr |
Selling Shareholder |
No of Shares |
% of Total Equity |
% of Offer |
Average Cost/Share in Rs after 1: 4 Bonus in 2011 |
Total Gains in Rs crs on Assumed IPO Offer Price Fixed at Rs 1032 |
1 |
FTIL (Promoter) |
2643916 |
5.2 |
41.13 |
* 8 |
271 |
2 |
SBI (Equity) |
2112025 |
4.1 |
32.86 |
* 8 |
216 |
3 |
GLG Financials Fund |
781508 |
1.5 |
12.16 |
# 924 |
8.4 |
4 |
Alexandra Mauritius Ltd |
390754 |
0.8 |
6.08 |
# 924 |
4.2 |
5 |
Corporation Bank |
246175 |
0.5 |
3.83 |
* 8 |
25 |
6 |
ICICI Lombard General Insurance Co |
148000 |
0.3 |
2.31 |
@ 840 |
2.8 |
7 |
Bank of Baroda |
105000 |
0.2 |
1.63 |
* 8 |
10.75 |
|
|
6427378 |
12.6 |
100 |
|
538.15 |
* Issued by MCX at Par Rs 10 in 2003,2004 & 2005 # Purchased from Promoter FTIL at Rs 577.50 (FV Rs 5) in 2007 @ Purchased from Promoter FTIL at Rs 525 (FV Rs 5) in 2007 |
The Actual Book Building Issue is for 5500772 Shares as just before IPO Opening,Anchor Investors,including Blackstone,have been allotted the maximum allowed 926606 shares at Rs 1032,being 15% of Total Offer for Sale and 30% of the QIB Sement of 50% of Total Offer for Sale
Overwhelming IPO Response…updated on 1/3/2012
The MCX IPO was oversubscribed 54 + times garnering Rs 36000 crs for an Issue size of just Rs 663 crs at Rs 1032….Rs 1032 has been announced as the IPO Price
MCX IPO Offer for Sale ~ Application Segment & Oversubscription
Sr |
Segment |
% of Offer excl employees |
No of Shares |
Pre IPO Allotment to Anchor Investors |
Book Building |
Oversubscribed No of Times |
1 |
QIB |
50 |
3088689 |
926606 |
2162083 |
49+ |
2 |
Non Institutional |
15 |
926607 |
|
926607 |
150+ |
3 |
Retail |
35 |
2162082 |
|
2162082 |
24+ |
|
|
|
6177378 |
926606 |
5250772 |
|
4 |
Employees |
|
250000 |
|
250000 |
0.18 |
Aggregate |
|
|
6427378 |
926606 |
5500772 |
54+ |
Retail Investors will be allotted just 8 to 9 shares on a maximum Application of 192 shares as their segment has been oversubscribed 24 times and even if the Employees undersubscription spills over the favourable impact is negligible
Products & Services ~ Strength & Scalability of the Business Model
Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX) is the flagship Exchange of FTIL.As on December 31,2011 it commanded 87.3% of the Market Share of the Turnover for the Nine Months FY 12 notching an aggregate turnover of Rs 11980689 crs with NCDEX with 9.4% coming in second and the rest NMCE,ICEX,ACE and others following
As on December 31,2011 MCX had 2153 Members operating 296000 Terminals across 1572 Cities and Towns in India …It had 49 Products on Offer and dealt largely in Value to the tune of 90.4% of Aggregate Value in just four commodities and their variations ~Silver (38.2%),Gold(27.5%),Crude Oil (15.9 %) and Copper (8.8%) …It enjoyed a Global Ranking in Trade of No 1 in Silver,No 2 in Gold,Copper and Natural Gas and No 3 in Crude OIl
It can handle 1 Crore Trades a Day with the highest registered yet at just 1867612 Trades
Currently FIIs,Banks and Mutual Funds are not allowed to trade in Commodities.Also Trading in Options is currently prohibited….If these windows open,the scale of operations will magnify….MCX says it has already created the software and technology and is ready to begin any such operations quickly once allowed
Foreign Investment in Commodity Exchanges in India is governed by Clause 6.2.20.2 of Circular 2 of 2011 of the FDI Policy.It allows 49% FDI constituting upto 23% by Registered FIIs through Secondary Market Purchases and upto 26% by under FDI Scheme after FIPB Approval
If you glance again above at the Pre IPO Shareholding you will notice that there is only a single FII holding 5% of the Equity,although Foreign Bodies hold 24.9% of which a small part is up for Sale in the IPO.
Performance ~ Past,Present & Potential
NetWorth
As at December 31,2011,the Networth of MCX was Rs 1074 crs with Equity at Rs 51 crs (FV Rs 10)…The Application was Rs 193 crs in Net Fixed Assets,Rs 1096 crs in Investments,Rs 384 crs in Current Assets and (Rs 583 crs) in Current Liabilities and Deferred Taxation at (Rs 16 crs)
The Book is Rs 210.58 per share at December 31,2011
Revenues and PAT
MCX earned Net Revenues of Rs 475 crs for the Nine Months at December 31,2011 with 81.5% of these coming from Transaction Fees of Rs 387 crs…Annual Subscription Fees,Member Admission Fees,Terminal Charges,Proceeds of Sale ,Dividend on Investments and Interest on Bank Deposits made up the balance
PAT was Rs 221 crs and restated PAT being Rs 218 crs giving an EPS Indication of Rs 42.8 and an Annualised Rs 57….For the past several years,despite the Turnover going up,the PAT has remained fairly constant at Rs 159 crs in FY 9,Rs 221 crs in FY 10,slipping to Rs 173 crs in FY 11 and climbing back to Rs 221 crs for the 9M FY 12
The Cashflows bring out a more clear picture
Cash Flows
Negative Cash Flows of MCX…in Rs Crs
Activity |
FY 9 |
FY 10 |
FY 11 |
9 M FY 12 |
Operating |
285.3 |
(91.9) |
270 |
163.7 |
Investing |
(137.1) |
(12.3) |
(232.6) |
(147.3) |
Financing |
11.6 |
(23.9) |
(23.7) |
(29.6) |
Net |
159.8 |
(128.1) |
13.5 |
(13.2) |
MCX attributes Negative Cash Flows to reduction of Current Liabilities,Provision for Trade Payables and working capital claims for settlement obligations in the normal cause of business
Dividends
FY 2007 was a fabulous year with MCX rewarding shareholders with a strong Rs 85.8 crs dividend…since then it has significantly reduced the dividend to Rs 23.5 crs in FY 2008,Rs 20.5 crs in FY 2009,Rs 20.4 crs in FY 2010 and a 50% last year in FY 2011 at Rs 25.5 crs
Potential
Clearly MCX is vigorously looking to raise Turnover Levels on it’s own Commodities Platform as well as get the Go ahead for launching Equity Trading on MCX-SX
Full FY 12 Revenues of MCX should be in the vicinity of Rs 650 crs with the PAT @ Rs 300 crs as it enjoys a strong Margin…The Potential of the Turnover to shoot up dramatically and non linear in the next three years hinges on the probability of two major windows opening out as below
-
FIIs,Banks and Mutual Funds are allowed to trade in Commodities
-
Option Contracts are allowed
If these windows open,it is not improbable to see PAT even doubling to levels of Rs 600 crs in three years…that’s an EPS in excess of Rs 110 and a Multiple of 15 to 20 would mean a Share Price close to Rs 2000…this is what is being hyped up and building up expectations and optimism for MCX
So Clearly the Potential to Scale is there…the Global Peer Table in the Valuations Segment below will also confirm this
The Question to ask is then,why is it that only MCX has performed so well and generated a monopolistic market share of 87.3% ! ?…NCDEX and others Exchanges are seen scraping the market share barrel !….we’ll leave that to debate for another day…manipulation or magic !
Risks
-
Development of New Commodity Futures Contracts in Competing Exchanges…there are currently 21 associations recognised by the Government of India which are authorised to organise and regulate Futures trading in various Commodities
-
Volatility in Commodity Prices…this can be very unnerving and results in lower volumes consequent to trading losses
-
Availability of More Trading Platforms
-
Possible Regulatory Changes
-
Negative Publicity,Regulations and Investigations
Commodity Exchanges in India are completely at the mercy of the Government.They are regulated and governed by the Forward Contract (Regulation) Act 1952 and the Forward Contract (Regulation) Rules 1954 with Operations overseen by the Forward Markets Commission…MCX currently has a Government Nominee on the Board as well as three FMC Nominees
Pricing ~ IPO vs Valuation
Rs 1032 is the IPO pricing of MCX…MCX earned Rs 218 crs in the Nine Months till December 31,2011…That’s an annualised EPS Indicator of Rs 57/Rs 58 and a Earnings Multiple of 18
The Book Value is @ Rs 211…that’s a Book Multiple of just under 5
Justification for these Premium Multiples for the IPO Pricing are three fold
-
MCX enjoys a Higher Profit Margin than Global and Domestic players
-
Scarcity Premium ~ There is no Peer Comparison worth making in India
-
The Growth Potential is Huge and even Non Linear if above mentioned Trading Windows open out
Let’s look at two comparisons…one Global and one with MCX’s Promoter itself,FTIL
GLOBAL PEERS
Sr |
Exchange |
Price in US $ |
Revenues US $ M |
PAT % |
EPS in US $ |
Market Cap US $ M |
P E |
PBV |
ROE % |
1 |
NYSE Euronext |
29 |
4552 |
13 |
2.4 |
7670 |
12.4 |
1.2 |
9.2 |
2 |
CME Group Inc |
296 |
3281 |
55 |
27.2 |
19630 |
10.9 |
0.9 |
8.7 |
3 |
NASDAQ OMX Group |
27 |
3438 |
11 |
2.2 |
4740 |
12.9 |
0.9 |
7.9 |
4 |
Intercontinental Exchange |
134 |
1327 |
39 |
6.9 |
9710 |
19.4 |
3.1 |
17.3 |
5 |
MCX |
21 |
96 |
47 |
1.2 |
1350 * |
18 |
4.9 |
20.5 |
* Assuming Listing Price of Rs 1300 and US $ = Rs 49.25 |
MCX is a baby in Revenue Terms when compared to Global Giants,but its IPO Pricing at rs 1032 or US $ 21 has been done at Premium Multiples and with a Networth of just Rs 1074 crs or US $ 218 M only is positioned to give six times Book with a Market Cap of US $ 1.35 Billion on Expected Listing at Rs 1300 in the first half of March
Such a High Book Multiple can only be defended if one strongly is convinced of the Non Linear or atleast a Earnings CAGR of over 30% over the next three years that will double MCXs Networth to over Rs 2000 crs and take the Book to nearer Rs 500 per share
MCX & FTIL
MCX & FTIL(Consolidated)
|
MCX |
FTIL |
Share Price in Rs
|
IPO ~ Rs 1032 Listing Exp ~ Rs 1300 |
March 1,2012 817 |
Market Cap in Rs Crs |
6630 |
3765 |
Exp FY 12 Revenues in Rs Crs |
600 |
600 |
Exp FY 12 PAT in Rs Crs |
300 |
300 |
Equity in Rs Crs |
51 (FV Rs 10) |
9.16 (FV Rs 2) |
Exp FY 12 Networth in Rs Crs |
1150 |
1800 |
Exp FY 12 EPS in Rs |
58 |
66 |
Exp FY 12 Book Value in Rs |
225 |
393 |
PE |
18 22 |
12+ |
PBV |
5 6 |
2 |
Interesting…Both MCX and it’s Promoter FTIL should notch up equal Revenues and Profits in FY 12 if Nine Months at December 31,2011 are any indication…and on a combined Networth of @ Rs 3000 crs should command over three times this with a Market Cap in excess of Rs 10000 crs or over Two Billion Dollars
MCX clearly is an Aggressive Valuation based on High Growth Assumptions…much in sync with Jignesh Shah’s Vision and Risk Taking Abilities to make it happen
Investing in Four Digits in MCX is taking a Bet on the High Growth Potential being spelt out and that the windows outlined above will open out sooner or later…in that FIIs, who currently can only take a stake,will also be allowed onto the Commodity Trading Platform…and that Options will be introduced too
MCX,therefore will not suit all Investor Risk Profiles…sometimes it safer to be a spectator when the pricing is aggressive
I can just visualise Kylie Minogue seducing Jignesh Shah to “Come Jiggy Jiggy with me” like she did Akshay Kumar in the Thriller ‘Blue’….I think she seduced CRISIL too to give MCX a top 5 IPO Rating !
Cheers !
6 thoughts on “MCX IPO in the Price Band of Rs 860 to Rs 1032…Any Gains on Listing ?…is MCX a Long Term Wealth Creator ?”
Excellent analysis – many thanks for sharing it. Wish I had read this few days ago 🙂 Lesson learnt : gotta start tracking your blog regularly.
Thx Sanjay…this blog post is yet work in progress..a lot more interesting facets will be commented on in the next few days…Cheers
yes even though I liked this blog and was regular reader, I stopped tracking it 2-3months back. But blog seems to be back on track
thanks Gaurav
if promoters of mcx cared about retail investor they would have given 5% discount… they are all behind making money..so the pedigree is nothing by money making
Pingback: Inspiring Listing by MCX at Rs 1400 Levels~ 35% + Premium to IPO Pricing of Rs1032...but will this level sustain ? | Gaurav's Blog
It was a inspiring post and it has a significant meaning and thanks for sharing the information.Would love to read your next post too……..Copper Updates