MOIL…Issued at Rs 375….High of Rs 591 on Listing…Dropping to Rs 462 in just a day…..What now…Buy…Hold..Sell ?

Tony, Shambu & Swaroop….this blog on MOIL is in response to your requests….but will serve the interests of all readers

As expected MOIL IPO received overwhelming subscription….Issued at Rs 375 with a 5% retail investors discount……and as expected it listed quite marvelously on December 15….reaching a High of Rs 591 on BSE…reacting sharply to close at Rs 466….then yesterday seeking another Low of Rs 451 before closing at Rs 462

What Now ?….Does it represent a Buying Opportunity at Rs 462 or will it drop yet further closer to it’s IPO Price of Rs 375 ?….Should Allottees who have yet not sold and new buyers continue to hold MOIL ?

My clear sense is that at Rs 462,MOIL appears fairly valued….at 12 Earnings Multiples for FY 2011 Projected EPS of Rs 39…..I am more concerned with some serious risks that MOIL is facing    

• The Proposed Mines & Minerals (Development & Regulation) Bill 2010 that seeks to replace the 1957 Act stipulates that the mine lease holder will have to set aside 26% of the Net Profit from the Mine as an annuity to the State Government towards compensation,assistance and employment for the rehabilitation and settlement of the tribals and people who stay around the Mines
• Technological Advances has reduced the consumption of Manganese Ore in the Production of Steel…From 46 kgs of ferro manganese consumed to produce a tonne of steel,the figure now stands at 30 kgs and in some industralised countries has dropped to even 10 kgs…this will impact the demand for Manganese Ore
• The Fortunes of the Manganese Ore Miners is inextricably linked to the Fortunes of and Demands from the Steel Companies…Manganese is the fourth most used Metal after Iron,Aluminium and Copper….Over 90% of the World’s production of Manganese is utilised for the desulphurisation and strengthening of Steel…The Recession of 2008/9 saw the Steel and Managanese Ore Prices drop 60% from their peak …Have a Look at this table for MOIL

•  In FY 2011 the Fortunes have revived and Average Sales Prices per tonne have again crossed Rs 11000 for Manganese Ore….however the volatility over the past five years is a matter of concern
• The last estimates show that World Reserves are 5200 Million Tonnes of Manganese Ore…South Africa holds 76.9% of these,followed by Ukraine at 10% and Australia a shade over 3% and India a shade under 3%….India has become a net importer of high grade Manganese Ore in the last three years from being a net exporter….yet South Africa’s  dominance in Reserves can impact World Prices as they can increase exports significantly once their sea,road and rail infrastructure strengthens…China is the world’s largest producer of Steel but holds just about 2% of the World’s reserves of Manganese Ore…so China Demand and Supply Situation will dictate World Prices

So what is MOIL doing to tackle these Risks ?

•  MOIL has entered into 50:50 JV in Chattisgarh with SAIL in 2008 to set up projects at a  cost of Rs 392 crs to produce 31000 tpa of Ferro Manganese and 75000 tpa of Silico Manganese…this high value addition products will add to profitability and margins
• MOIL has also set up a similar 50:50 JV  in Andhra Pradesh with RINL in 2009 to set up projects at a cost of Rs 206 crs to produce 20000 tpa of Ferro Manganese and 37500 tpa of Silico Manganese
• At a cost of Rs 300 crs it plans to deepen the mining depth from current 360 meters to 660 meters at it’s largest Mine at Balaghat in Madhya Pradesh…currently MOIL operates Ten Mines,six at Nagpur and Bhandara in Maharashtra and Four in Balaghat in Madhya Pradesh….all ten are over 100 years old….only three are opencast mines…Dongri Buzurg Mine in Bhandara produces Manganese Dioxide used in the dry cell industry…Rs 180 crs is being spend on this mine to expand production…In October 2009 the Mines Ministry has also reserved @815 hectares in Maharashtra for MOIL…MOIL has applied for prospecting licenses for this area…..all these efforts will help MOIL in achieving its target to scale up production from the current 1.15 mtpa to 1.5 mtpa by  2015/16  
• MOIL is already one of the lowest cost producer of Manganese in the World…it has set up a wind farm to generate power of 4MW for captive use…in FY 10 it generated 3.3 MW
• World Steel Capacities till 2009 end were 1750 million tonnes with Production at 1223 Million tonnes….India is expected to produce 65 Million tonnes this year and is expected to move from the fifth largest producer in the World to the second largest by 2015/16…As at October 1,2010,MOIL had 21.7 million tonnes of proven and probable reserves (55% of which have an average manganese content of 40% and above and 27% has manganese content of 36% to 39.9%) and 69.5 million of measured,indicated or inferred reserves…Being debt free and holding Cash at Rs 1763 crs at September 2010 (Rs 104/share) MOIL is expected to leverage on growing domestic demand for Steel as the Government plays out the Rs 1.73 trillion outlay on Infratructure as stated in the last budget…In fact Steel Capacity from 73 millions tonnes is expected to cross 120 million tonnes by 2012    

My sense is that MOIL applied some make up to it’s current year financials to look a little more attractive as it came out with it’s IPO ….Going Forward the Volatility in Prices of Manganese Ore based on the swings in Fortunes of the Steel Industry will guide Earnings….so keep an eye on the Price per tonne of Manganese Ore….last three years the cycles have shown average extremes of Rs 6500 to Rs 11600…MOIL’s scale of Operations is just a percentage of that of Giant NMDC….and thus MOIL’s Share Price  will reflect lower relative Multiples….at 12 times Forward FY 11 EPS,my sense is that MOIL is at present fairly priced….Any significant deviation from projected PAT of Rs 650 crs this year will impact MOIL’s Share Price….An Earnings Multiple Range of of 10-15 is being established….Share Price will move past Rs 550 only if there is a sense of higher earnings than Rs 650 crs this year and markets will then sustain higher PE Multiple of 14 and 15…On the downside the IPO Price of Rs 375 can be touched if actual PAT drops into the Rs 500-Rs 550 crs range for FY 11,offering an EPS of Rs 30…likely if it has to expense 26% of profits for rehabilitation as per the new Bill Proposed 

So with MOIL at Rs 462,I would say it’s fairly priced given earnings assumptions in the short term and the risks it faces as outlined above

Bottomline….I am not a Buyer of MOIL at Rs 462…..With a strong Listing at Rs 550 + day before it was a sell for all those allotted shares….only 17 shares were allotted to retail investors….even at Rs 462,don’t regret selling it off…retail allotments are simply too insignificant to hold on to…just like I had opined for Reliance Power in Feb 2008…there too the retail allotments were poor at 16 or 17 shares and the market offered you in the first few days to exit above IPO Price at Rs 427+…since then it has simply collapsed….MOIL may not collapse…but take this profit now,more so because your holdings are too small to impact your portfolio,rather than on Valuation

Also have a look at the Networth Parameter…Currently MOIL has a Networth of Rs 2000 crs,while the Market Capitalisation is just under four times at just under Rs 8000 crs at CMP of Rs 462….that’s not Cheap nor a Bargain

Government divested 20% in the MOIL IPO with the Maharastra and MP State Governments offering 10% each…it yet holds a controlling stake of 80%…The Allotment Shareholding shows FIIs holding 3.62 %,DIIs holding 5.37% and remaining 11.01 % spread with Body Corporates and the Public….However numerous Bulk Deals in the past few days may reveal an altered shareholding pattern

Now having listed MOIL,the Government will have to strengthen Corporate Governance….In this context ,the Auditors…Shah,Baheti,Chandak & Co…have passed two remarks in their Report in the FY 10 Annual Report…they observe that MOIL had only three Independent Directors when it should have had Four…they also have commented that MOIL needs to improve it’s Internal Audit System 

I did not apply in the IPO,nor did I advice Clients strongly to do so as I expected very poor allotments….neither have I traded or advised clients to do so in MOIL in the past two days of Listing……..so I hold no conflict of Interest in my View…and the three Real Risks I outlined above at the Outset have influenced my View to be a measured and conservative  one for MOIL ….furthermore the huge swings in Profitability in the past five years,typical of Commodity Stocks,adds to the Risk of holding such stocks….you have to catch the right swing for great profits…..not everyone’s cup of tea……Having said this,a decent Realised Profit is better than a Notional one    

Cheers !